Harvest Yield Analytics (HYA)
The model captures real-time yield results from commercial seed company trial results during the fall harvest season. Yields from seed plot trials are then compared to historical seed plot trials (2020–2024) in the same region and used as a predictor for average county yields. It’s important to note these results are not fully representative of every acre or growing condition, but they provide valuable directional insights into harvest outcomes.
Follow Along Weekly with our Harvest Yield Analytics as we track corn and soybean yields this harvest season and compare trends to previous years. This information is part of our weekly email insights— sign up here to receive updates directly in your inbox.
Harvest Yield Analytics: Final Read Ahead of the January USDA Report
With the January 12 USDA Crop Production report approaching, Quantum Hedging is issuing a special year-end update to our Harvest Yield Analytics (HYA). Our last full release was November 12, and with harvest now fully complete, this report provides a final assessment of realized corn and soybean yields relative to USDA expectations.
Based on thousands of commercial seed plot results, HYA offers a ground-level view of how the 2025 crop ultimately finished—and where official estimates may still diverge from reality.
Corn: Core Belt Weakness Defines Final Outcome
Final HYA results show U.S. corn yields finishing modestly below 2024, despite USDA’s upward revisions late in the season. While pockets of strength emerged across South Dakota, Minnesota, Indiana, and Ohio, those gains were outweighed by persistent underperformance in Iowa and Illinois.
Deviation maps confirm that the heart of the Corn Belt failed to fully recover from mid- to late-season stress, leaving a clear pocket of weakness stretching through central Iowa into western Illinois. As a result, HYA data suggest realized yields in core production states likely fell short of USDA’s national projection—keeping downside risk to final production in focus heading into the January report.
Soybeans: Broad Strength and Better Alignment with USDA
Soybeans finished the year on firmer footing. HYA results show yields ending above 2024 levels, with broad-based strength across Kansas, South Dakota, Nebraska, and much of the eastern Corn Belt. While localized softness persisted in North Dakota and parts of Missouri, it was not enough to materially impact the national outcome.
Final county-level maps display a clear green bias across key growing regions, reinforcing a stable-to-above-trend soybean finish. Compared to corn, soybeans show far less divergence between plot-level data and USDA estimates, suggesting the agency’s outlook more accurately captured final supply.
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Includes benchmark comparisons from the USDA 2025 Report (November 14)
Looking Ahead: QH Research Going Forward
This update serves as a capstone to the 2025 harvest season and a bridge into winter supply-and-demand analysis. With harvest complete, market focus now shifts fully to balance sheets, demand rationing, and price discovery into 2026.
Going forward, Quantum Hedging market forecasts will be available exclusively through our premium research offering. This transition allows us to deliver deeper analysis, clearer signals, and more consistent coverage tailored for commercial grain entities, merchandisers, and institutional clients.
If you would like to continue receiving our forecasts and learn more about research access options, please reach out directly to Diana DeHart at (312) 429-7391 or diana@quantum-hedging.com. She can walk you through what ongoing research coverage looks like and whether it’s a fit for your operation.
