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Hypothetical performance; not actual results. See important disclosures below.

Harvest Yield Analytics (Corn) – 10/2/25

Harvest Yield Analytics (HYA)

The model captures real-time yield results from commercial seed company trial results during the fall harvest season. Yields from seed plot trials are then compared to historical seed plot trials (2020–2024) in the same region and used as a predictor for average county yields. It’s important to note these results are not fully representative of every acre or growing condition, but they provide valuable directional insights into harvest outcomes. Follow Along Weekly with our Harvest Yield Analytics as we track corn and soybean yields this harvest season and compare trends to previous years. This information is part of our weekly email newsletter and you can sign up to receive it in your inbox.

Gains in the South and Ohio Valley, Risks Centered in Iowa

The USDA projects U.S. corn yields at 186.7 bu/acre (+7.4 YoY). By comparison, our Harvest Yield Analytics (HYA) composite, built on commercial seed-plot results, is currently tracking −1.2 bu/acre versus 2024. That’s a meaningful improvement from last week’s −5.5, with strength across the South and the Ohio Valley beginning to offset ongoing weakness in the central Belt.

The key uncertainty remains Iowa. USDA estimates 219 bu/acre (+8 YoY)—a potential new state record. Our Iowa seed-plot read, however, is still materially weaker, showing −19.2 YoY.

Historical context matters here: USDA expects both Iowa and Illinois at 219, yet Iowa has not matched or exceeded Illinois since 2019 (Iowa 198 vs. Illinois 181). Against that backdrop, the USDA’s Iowa call looks ambitious given current evidence, making it the single largest downside risk to the national number.

For a deeper dive, check out this week’s YouTube video where Kevin McNew breaks down the latest Harvest Yield numbers.

Download the Full HYA Report

-Data from 818 plot reports thru Oct 1, 2025 as compared to 8,000 in 2024

-Data from the USDA 2025 Report- Sept 11

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Management services are offered by Quantum Hedging CTA, LLC – NFA ID: 0566667. Brokerage services are offered by Boundary Waters Capital, LLC, dba Quantum Hedging BR – NFA ID: 0560271.

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