Harvest Yield Analytics (HYA)
The model captures real-time yield results from commercial seed company trial results during the fall harvest season. Yields from seed plot trials are then compared to historical seed plot trials (2020–2024) in the same region and used as a predictor for average county yields. It’s important to note these results are not fully representative of every acre or growing condition, but they provide valuable directional insights into harvest outcomes.
Follow Along Weekly with our Harvest Yield Analytics as we track corn and soybean yields this harvest season and compare trends to previous years. This information is part of our weekly email insights— sign up here to receive updates directly in your inbox.
Harvest Yield Wrap Up: Corn Slips, Soybeans Stay Strong
As the 2025 harvest season draws to a close, Quantum Hedging’s Harvest Yield Analytics (HYA) provides a near-complete picture of national yield performance across both corn and soybeans. The latest readings — based on over 6,600 corn and 3,000 soybean plot reports — capture trends that reflect a season of resilience, regional contrast, and tightening yield variability heading into winter.
Corn: Finishing Flat and Below Expectations
The HYA composite, now covering nearly 90% of corn counties, shows yields running −0.6 bu/ac below 2024, marking a soft national finish. South Dakota (+15.8), Ohio (+11.5), and Minnesota (+8.5) continue to lead regional strength, while Iowa (−14.5) and Illinois (−9.4) remain significant drags on the national average.
The latest deviation maps highlight a widening zone of weakness through the central Corn Belt, where late-season stress and heat curtailed recovery. Overall, the data reinforce a north–south divide, with strength in the northern tier and Ohio Valley offset by underperformance across core producing states — keeping USDA’s 186.7 bu/ac forecast increasingly difficult to reach.
Soybeans: Consistency Defines the Finish
For soybeans, HYA data — now covering over 76% of soybean counties — show yields running +2.1 bu/ac above 2024, keeping pace with USDA’s 53.5 bu/ac projection. Strength remains broad-based, led by Kansas, South Dakota, and Nebraska, while North Dakota and Illinois continue to trail.
The national map reveals a predominantly green tone across the Central and Eastern Corn Belt, signaling a balanced and resilient crop. Favorable late-season weather and steady regional performance helped maintain quality, suggesting the U.S. soybean crop will close the year on target and slightly above trend.
For a deeper dive, check out this week’s YouTube video where Kevin McNew breaks down the latest Harvest Yield numbers.
-
Includes benchmark comparisons from the USDA 2025 Report (September 11)
-
Updated weekly as additional plot results are reported
About Quantum Hedging’s Research Program
The Harvest Yield Analytics series is part of Quantum Hedging’s broader Research Product, delivering high-frequency, data-driven insights for commercial grain entities, merchandisers, and institutional investors. Each week’s update bridges on-the-ground yield performance with national supply trends to help clients navigate market volatility and position for opportunity.
Stay informed with ongoing corn and soybean yield tracking, updated maps, and model commentary throughout harvest.
👉 Subscribe to the HYA Weekly Insights: Join the Email List
