Corn Holds Relative Strength as Soybeans Drift Lower — QH Weekly Forecast (Dec 15, 2025)
This week’s Quantum Hedging Forecast highlights a familiar late-year theme across the grain complex: corn continues to hold firm while soybeans struggle to regain upside traction. As broader grain prices softened, corn once again demonstrated relative resilience — a pattern that remains consistent with QH model signals.
Corn Outlook
March corn closed the week at $4.41/bu, down modestly but holding up well relative to soybeans. The QH model now shows a 63% probability of higher prices over the next 30 days, reflecting a neutral-to-moderately bullish bias.
Seasonal tendencies remain supportive this time of year, and while the model does not indicate a breakout beyond typical seasonal norms, it continues to favor steady upside risk rather than renewed downside pressure. The current 30-day forecast places corn near $4.50/bu, with a wide but constructive confidence range as markets digest year-end positioning.
Soybean Outlook
Soybeans extended recent weakness, with March futures closing near $10.87/bu, down nearly 30 cents on the week. The QH model now sits at 48% probability of higher prices, keeping soybeans firmly in neutral territory but reflecting continued erosion in upside conviction.
This softer bias aligns with a market still searching for direction. Despite prior rallies earlier in the fall, soybeans have struggled to attract sustained buying interest, and near-term signals remain mixed at best.
Relative Perspective Matters
While outright direction remains uncertain across the grain complex, the relative divergence between corn and soybeans continues to stand out. Corn’s ability to maintain structure amid broader weakness reinforces the model’s preference for corn over beans on a relative basis — even as both markets remain sensitive to macro forces.
Spread Forecasts
Corn spreads weakened further this week, reinforcing near-term pressure into mid-January. Soybean spreads, while softening alongside futures, remain structurally intact according to the model, suggesting recent weakness reflects outright price pressure rather than breakdowns in spread relationships.
📊 Download this week’s forecast and check out our video breakdown of the December 15th issue on YouTube for a closer look at model trends and regional yield shifts.
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As always, these forecasts reflect model-based probabilities, not certainties. Quantum Hedging’s goal remains the same: to provide commercial grain entities and institutional participants with clear, data-driven insight to navigate short-term volatility and relative opportunity as markets move into year-end.
*QH forecasts are forward-looking estimates based on historical data and are not trade recommendations.
