Corn: Near-Term Lift, Harvest Outlook Hinges on Yields
Our model shows a 62%* probability of higher prices over the next 4 weeks, with momentum largely supported by foreign S&D factors, technical signals, and U.S. balance sheet inputs. That keeps the short-term tone constructive, but not forceful.
Looking ahead to late September, the model strengthens modestly to a 72%* probability of higher prices, suggesting the balance of risks has tilted a bit more in favor of the bulls. Forecast paths point to futures tracking between $3.93* and $4.78* through October, with the central tendency leaning slightly above $4.25*.
Two key features continue to shape this outlook. First, USDA’s yield numbers are unlikely to move higher from here — meaning any surprises would more likely come from downward revisions, which could lend support to prices. Second, the ongoing lack of meaningful precipitation across parts of the Corn Belt keeps weather risk in the background. While not the sole driver, dryness could matter if it persists into late stages of the growing season.
Taken together, the model points to near-term upside potential, though conviction remains tied to how yield projections and late-season weather play out.
Soybeans: Cautious Signals Into Harvest
The Quantum Hedging soybean model is showing a 75%* probability of lower prices over the next 4 weeks, with prices & technicals leading the signal alongside foreign supply & demand. That sets a softer short-term tone, hinting at pressure as the market approaches harvest.
Further out into late September, the signal remains tilted lower with a 64%* probability of downside risk. While not overwhelming, it reinforces a market that has yet to find strong support on the demand side. Model paths suggest futures could range from $9.52* to $11.03* through October, with the centerline clustering closer to $10.25*.
The story here leans less on weather for soybeans and more on balance sheets. U.S. and foreign demand remain uneven, while the broader supply outlook still appears comfortable. Without a decisive pickup in export flows, soybeans may find it difficult to shake the pressure implied in the near-term model.
*Hypothetical performance; not actual results. Excludes commissions and exchange/regulatory fees.
*Back-tested results are hypothetical. AI forecasts are forward-looking estimates based on historical data. Actual results may differ materially; past trends are not indicative of future performance. See full disclosure for details.
