Neutral in the next couple of weeks. More bearish in the longer run. The model is looking for prices to start collapsing before the end of June. There is some probability however that prices go moderately higher. We’ve been fairly range bound this year and prices are in the lower end of the range currently.
S&Ds both domestic and foreign are bearish. As are biofuel indicators.
Energy prices are surprisingly bullish.
Seasonality is definitely bearish.
Overall moderately bearish with an 80% probability interval out to harvest of 3.51-4.86 for corn at harvest.
As we move along a few weeks, I’m sure the models will tighten up on their forecasts.
Neutral in the next couple of weeks. Slightly bullish in the longer run. The model is looking for prices to slowly climb from now until harvest. Though note the wide confidence channel. There’s no solid directional view as of yet. Same as corn, we’ve been in an unusually tight range for a while now.
Domestic S&Ds are quite bullish. As are options positioning and energy prices. Seasonality is bearish. As is commitment of traders and some technical indicators.
Overall moderately bullish out to harvest with an 80% probability interval of 9.50 to 11.93 for soybeans at harvest.
Similar to corn, I’m sure the models will tighten up on their forecasts as we move forward the next 3-4 weeks.
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