Corn: Weather Wins Again, Bears Still Hold the Wheel
Not much has changed this week for the Quantum Hedging corn model—and that in itself is the story. As of July 7, the model remains in bearish territory, with a 61% probability of lower prices over the next four weeks. It’s a slight softening from last week’s 69%, but the tone remains the same: good weather is the dominant theme, and it’s limiting any bullish hope.
U.S. weather has taken over as the leading driver in the short-term outlook. Fields across the Corn Belt are in solid shape, and traders know it. Add in muted foreign demand and weak support from biofuels, and you’ve got a market that’s still leaning heavy to the downside.
Looking further out, the medium-term view through September 28 is even more decisive. The model is pegging an 87% probability of lower prices, nearly unchanged from last week. Again, U.S. weather is the powerhouse here, with favorable growing conditions pointing toward a big crop. Meanwhile, technicals, energy inputs, and even market positioning are all reinforcing the same story: there’s no shortage of corn, and no urgency in the market.
In short, the bearish setup continues to grind on. Unless the weather flips in a big way—or a demand shock suddenly materializes—the path of least resistance remains down. The model still sees that $4 level as a ceiling, and the door to the mid-$3s stays wide open.
Soybeans: Bearish for Now, Bullish Momentum Builds into Fall
As of July 7, the Quantum Hedging soybean model is leaning bearish in the short run, but flashing serious bullish potential further out. In the next four weeks, the model sees a 66% probability of lower prices, slightly more bearish than the prior week’s 64%. That slide is largely weather-driven—conditions across key U.S. growing regions continue to look strong—and when crops are thriving, prices usually aren’t.
Also weighing on the short-term outlook are trader positioning and a soft biofuels complex. Technicals remain weak, offering little support. Altogether, the market remains stuck in a sideways-to-lower gear, with no near-term spark to reverse course.
But beyond that, the tone shifts dramatically. By the end of September, the model flips to a strong 86% probability of higher prices. That bullish turn is being powered by a combination of market positioning, supply-and-demand fundamentals, and a more balanced weather influence. Traders may already be pricing in risks around late-season weather or tightening stocks, and momentum is quietly building behind the scenes.
So while soybeans are still stuck under pressure for now, the second half of summer could bring a very different story. If supply nerves grow or demand perks up, the path higher might open quickly—and the model is already preparing for that pivot.
