Corn: Firm Bias, Modest Expectations
As of August 7, the Quantum Hedging corn model is leaning bullish, but in a measured way. The 4-week outlook shows a 76% probability of higher prices, with strength led by global weather trends and a modest boost from technical factors and U.S. supply/demand. The medium-term view through September 28 is similar, holding at 77% probability of higher prices, still driven primarily by favorable global weather patterns.
The CZ25 forecast points to a base case of $4.13 by September 7 and $4.22 by late September, with an upper bound stretching to the mid-$4.50s and a lower bound near $3.88. These levels reflect potential for upside but stop short of signaling a breakout scenario.
The analog year analysis shows 2025 tracking slightly below its historical peer average, aligning more with subdued years like 2018 and 2024 rather than strong rally years. That supports the idea that while the bias is to the upside, it’s not an aggressive call.
Overall, the model suggests a market with a slight tailwind, but without the conviction or volatility that might drive large moves. It’s a constructive setup—just not a runaway rally call.
Soybeans: Cautious Optimism Amid Measured Signals
The soybean forecast leans modestly bullish in the short and medium term, though conviction remains tempered. The 4-week model is signaling an 81% probability of higher prices, with US supply and demand dynamics carrying the most weight in the outlook, followed by market positioning. The September 28 view ticks slightly higher to 87% bullish, but the magnitude of expected price moves remains moderate.
From a historical analog perspective, the current price path is running slightly below the average of similar years, with past patterns showing both upward and downward swings from this point in the season. While recent momentum has been soft, the model’s signals suggest some scope for recovery — but not without risk if fundamentals shift.
