Here’s our model’s latest corn price forecast from data generated on May 14th.
The model is bullish on corn over the next 4 to 6 weeks, taking us out to mid-June.
Seasonality is slightly bullish during this window—and historically, the bigger price moves this time of year tend to be to the upside. That said, mid-June is often an inflection point, where prices typically peak. Then 70% of the time, prices head lower out to October.
Our model shows a 90% probability that the CZ25 corn contract will be higher by mid-June.
It also gives us an expected price range of $4.39 to $5.07 (with 80% confidence and a midpoint of $4.72).
Key bullish drivers in the model this week include:
- Soybean production numbers
- Commitment of trader data
- Drought statistics
The only drag? Technical indicators—specifically market volatility measures—are showing slightly bearish signals.
Bottom line:
Even though we’re in a time of international trade policy uncertainty, which we believe warrants some discounting of directional confidence, our model still maintains an upward view.
We’ll keep monitoring the data and update the forecast weekly.
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