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AI Edge Market Forecast: Corn & Soybean Market Outlook – July 28th, 2025

Corn: Calm, but Cautious

As of July 28, the Quantum Hedging corn model is modestly leaning bullish. The 4-week outlook shows an 80% probability of higher prices, driven largely by technical support and global weather influences. Still, the tone isn’t one of breakout optimism—it’s more a reflection of stability after weeks of pressure.

This week’s model doesn’t anticipate large swings. With futures grinding near $4.20, the short-term forecast holds at $4.21 by August 28, and just $4.13 by late September. Even with an 80% probability technically in the upside, this is a soft signal, especially considering the broader environment. Looking further out, the longer-term model leans barely bullish with 53% probability of higher prices by September 28, showing the market remains cautious. Influences here are more globally weighted—global weather and macro trends are nudging the needle higher, but U.S. weather and supply-side fundamentals are keeping a lid on enthusiasm.

Price volatility is low, and the forecast range reflects it. The model’s not pointing toward collapse—but it isn’t shouting rally either. The underlying message: slightly higher prices are favored, but not guaranteed. For now, the market appears to be catching its breath. Whether that calm holds will depend on how global supply flows and late-season weather evolve from here.

Soybeans: Momentum Slips, Bias Tilts Lower

As of July 28, the Quantum Hedging soybean model is leaning bearish. The 4-week outlook shows a 90% probability of lower prices, making it the clearest signal in this week’s forecast package. That said, the overall tone of the data remains measured rather than aggressive.

The biggest driver behind this short-term weakness is a shift in U.S. supply and demand metrics, now firmly tilted against the market. Positioning and macro factors are also leaning negative, though not decisively so. As a result, the model sees downside as more likely than upside—but it’s not calling for a steep collapse either. The SX25 forecast reflects that stance. It targets $9.74 by August 28, with a potential lower bound at $9.39. The September 28 projection lands at $10.23, but the path there could include a dip into the mid-$9s before any rebound materializes.

The longer-term outlook is completely neutral, with the model showing a 50% probability of higher prices by late September. It’s a coin toss, shaped by offsetting forces—S&D weakness on one side and global trends and technicals on the other.

Bottom line: soybeans look weaker in the near term, and the model favors more downside—but not dramatically so. It’s a cautious, data-driven bearish bias—not a red alert. Any meaningful shift in fundamentals or demand could still sway the outlook either way in the weeks ahead.

 

 

 

 

 

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