Here’s our model’s latest CORN price forecast as of May 21st.
The model is moderately bullish on corn over the next 3 to 5 weeks, taking us out to mid-June.
Seasonality is bullish during this window—and historically, the bigger price moves this time of year tend to be to the upside. That said, mid-June is often an inflection point, where prices typically peak and then head lower about 70% of the time between June and October.
Right now, our model shows a 72% probability that the CZ25 corn contract will be higher by mid-June. The probability is lower than last week. But we did have a nice rally last week and it’s still flashing to the upside. This is not a guarantee, there are risks relying on models.
The model gives us an expected price range of $4.39 to $5.01, with 80% probability, and a midpoint of $4.69. This is almost the same as last week.
Key bullish drivers in the model this week include:
- Soybean production numbers
- Commitment of Traders data
- And drought conditions in key regions
Most bearish? Again, Technical indicators—specifically the same market volatility measures—are flashing negative for prices.
Here’s our model’s latest SOYBEANS price forecast as of May 21st.
The model is moderately bullish on corn over the next 3 to 5 weeks, taking us out to mid-June.
Seasonality is bullish during this window—and historically, with slightly bigger price moves this time of year to the upside. That said, late-June is often an inflection point, where prices typically peak and then head lower about 70% of the time between June and October.
Right now, our model shows a 79% probability that the SX25 soybean contract will be higher by mid-June. This is not a guarantee, there are risks relying on models.
The model gives us an expected price range of $10.28 to $11.56, with 80% probability, and a midpoint of $10.90 which is almost a half dollar higher than today.
Key bullish drivers in the model this week include:
- Weather in South America
- US Fundamentals
- Certain Technical Indicators
- And strong historical Seasonality
No significant bearish indicators.
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